Warming trend in near-term forecast for West Texas

Mostly cloudy to sunny skies and unseasonably cool temperatures persist in West Texas this morning, slowing boll development. A warming trend, though, is expected this afternoon, and above-average temperatures are forecast later this week, which will help increase daily heat units and thereby enhance boll maturation. Elsewhere in the state, work is gaining momentum from Central to East Texas under fair conditions, and gins are processing seed cotton supplies on their yards. The latest crop progress report issued by the USDA shows that the health of the state’s cotton improved during the week ended October 8, with 56 percent of plants rated ‘good to excellent’ (up 4 points on the week), 27 percent ‘fair’, and 17 percent poor to very poor’. Boll openings, though, lag behind the average at 60 percent, just 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and 11 points less than the five-year average. Nevertheless, harvesting was ahead of the normal pace at 27 percent, compared with the 19 percent average.

Meanwhile, a slight deterioration in the condition of the Southeastern crop was reported on the week, with the proportion of cotton categorized ‘good to excellent’ ranging from 46 percent in Georgia to 96 percent in South Carolina. Although boll openings lagged behind the normal pace in all states except Georgia and South Carolina, picking was at or ahead of schedule throughout the region as growers rushed to get as much cotton off the stalk as possible ahead of Hurricane Nate. However, work remains limited now, owing to intermittent storms this week. Partly cloudy, warm, muggy conditions prevail today, and thundershowers could popup as daytime heating occurs. Mostly sunny, above-average temperatures are forecast tomorrow, which will help bleach any discolored lint in open bolls and will give soft soils time to firm.

In the Memphis Territory, plant health showed some improvement on the week. Boll openings were near or ahead of the five-year average, and picking was better than average in Louisiana, Missouri and Tennessee. Light to moderate rains to as many as 2.7’’ were received yesterday in isolated northern locales as thunderstorms developed ahead of a cool front. Cloudy, near-seasonable conditions are being reported across the North Delta today, and growers are concerned that the cool, damp weather could adversely affect quality. Elsewhere in the region, mostly sunny skies rule, and picking is gaining momentum. Backlogs of modules are lining many gin yards, and processing plants are increasing their hours of operation.

Sunny skies are forecast for most of the Far West today. Dry, slightly cooler temperatures are expected in California’s San Joaquin Valley, with highs in the 80°s (F). Thus, harvesting is progressing with little interruption. To October 8, one-tenth of the state’s crop was off the stalk, which is on par for this time of year. There were little if any noticeable changes to plant health throughout the region during the week ended October 8.

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