Australia: production forecasts increase

After a period of exceptional wet weather during September, cotton planting has suffered some delays, but is now under way in earnest in all areas. Some regions in the far south are still very wet and a cold spell will slow progress for a few days. Some replanting will be necessary. However, with availability this season of the latest Bollgard® 3 seed varieties, growers have a planting window of around another week, without there being too much of a detrimental impact on yields.

Sources on the ground suggest that sales of planting seed have slowed, but there is an expectation that an area close to 500,000 hectares (ha) will be attainable nationwide, up from the September estimate of 450,000/475,000 ha, and double the area planted last season. Perhaps 30 percent of the land is earmarked for dryland sowing. Several growers have been switching to cotton from other crops not suited to the current weather conditions.

The rapid improvement of the water situation has coincided with firm prices, at or above the benchmark AU$ 500 per 227 kilo bale, for base quality.

According to local observers, if heat units during the growing season prove adequate, an optimistic view of the outlook is justified.  Many forecasts fall between 4.0 and 4.5 million bales (227 kilos), and figures toward the upper end of that range are given increasing credence.  Cotton Outlook’s forecast has this week been adjusted upward to 975,000 tonnes (roughly 4.3 million bales), against 590,000 last season.

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